As of right now, I say NO. Without a doubt he is the greatest return man
in the history of the game, but this does not equate to being Hall of Fame
worthy. It’s hard for someone to make it as a special team player into the
hall. Take a guess at how many guys that
were just special team players are in the hall... if you said one you are
right. The only player that was a
special team’s player is Jan Stenerud; he was a place kicker who played 18
years. He scored 1,699 points, had a 66.8% success rate at kicking field goals
and 96.5% on extra points.
It is hard for a special teamer into make
it to the hall. For the simple fact they
are on the field for so few plays a game.
Last year Marc Mariani had the most Kick Returns in the NFL with 60 over
a course of a season; that is an average of 3.75 times a game. Tramon Williams
lead the NFL in punt returns with 41 over a course of a season; that is an
average of 2.56 times a game.
Now these are both the top return guys
from each category, not taking into account times when they did not return the
ball. However, it gives a general idea
of the number of plays that they were on the field. Taking the numbers and combining them leads
to 101 plays on the field. I’ll add the
top number of fair catchers on punts, which was 21 last years. So the total now stands at 122 plays in a
season or 7.63 plays a game.
I understand that the number of kick/punt returns is not
comparable to the number of plays on offense but it puts things into perspective.
Last year the team that ran the most
plays during the course of the season was the Atlanta Falcons, who ran 1,097
plays on offense. Which comes to an
average of 68.56 plays a game. Taking the
team that ran the least amount of plays it comes out to 56.69 plays a game, the
Titans ran the least plays a game a total 907 plays last year.
Last year in the NFL there were a total
of 32,319 offense plays ran. This is an average of 1,009.97 plays a team for
the year and 63.12 play a game for each team.
Now looking at the average plays per game
63.12 and the average number of kick/punt returns a game 7.63; it takes 8.27
games for a kick/punt returner to equal the number of plays that a member of
the offense is on the field for a single game. So it takes almost a whole year for a
kick/punt returner to play the equivalent number of plays that a member of the
offense participates in during the course of two games. As a result, takes a returner eight years to
participate in the same number of plays as an offensive player does in one
year.
Throughout Hester’s career he has
returned 128 kicks and 189 punts, in 83 total games. His combined total return is 3.8 per game,
when adding his 52 fair catches it comes to 4.45 a game. Just last year Hester averaged
3.4 return-plays a game, including fair catches. He had a total of 55 returns and fair catches.
The Bears had a total of 936 plays last
year on offense. That comes out to 60.19 plays a game. Hester only had 55 total returns last year, so
he did not even play a full game based on the average number of plays the Bears
had per game.
This year the Bears through seven games
are averaging, 60.14 plays a game on offense. While Hester is averaging 4.42
returns a game. He has played one half
of football so far this season, as he has been involved in 31 total plays.
I understand that Hester has an impact on
the game, on more than just his returns.
Some teams elect to kick the ball out of bounds on a punt instead of
kicking it to him. Also, fin the battle
for field position they can flip the field advantage to their respective
team. A long return can spark a team even
if it is not a touchdown.
Now Hester owns many records as a return
man, he owns the career total kick/punt return for touchdown record for returns
with 16. When all is said and done he
will most likely own the record for more returns for touchdowns, this includes
all type of returns (punts, kicks, missed field goals, fumbles, and
interceptions).
I think for Hester to make the Hall of
Fame, based just on his special team accomplishments, he needs to end his
career with about 25-30 returns for touchdowns.
This is going to be very hard to do, if not impossible. Another way
Hester can make the Hall of Fame is if he improves himself as a wide receiver.
Now realistically Hester can improve as a
wide receiver as he is still just learning to play the position. There are only
a few receivers in the league that have been playing the position shorter then
Hester. He is only in his fifth year playing wide receiver. Hester will never be a number one receiver however;
he can be a good slot receiver. There is no other player in the league that can
run with him in the open field. If you
think there is watch his punt/kick returns, the cuts he makes and his vision
are unbelievable.
The biggest problem is that the Bears
have no receivers, so Hester is made to play on the outside. This is a problem for him because he can’t
use his skill set, because he is easily jammed, due to his small stature. It is much harder to jam a slot receiver,
which would allow Hester to get off the ball clean. His best game this year came when he played
the slot the most against the Vikings, where he had five catches for 91 yards
and a touchdown.
If Hester can somehow get to around 8,000
yards and 50 touchdowns as a receiver I think he has a great chance to make the
Hall of Fame if he does not return another kick for a touchdown. However, Hester would need 5,496 more yards
to get to 8,000 and 37 more touchdowns to get to 50. Can he do it? I am not sure, but I would love
to see it happen.
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